As per usual, I'm here again to show y'all if it's worth buying the avaiable goodies of this event. Unlike last time, now I'll be giving you this information before the event even starts. But before I go into that, some notes:
1 - Assume everything I show is "on average" and rounded up, unless I say otherwise.
2 - My loot tables, and by extent the numbers I'll show, are valid up until 30th of March of 2018 (date of this event).
3 - I've excluded Gun Goddess Miss Fortune because I don't know its disenchant value and the pricing on that skin is different from every other. Doesn't make a big difference though.
4 - I've divided this in 4 parts: Birdie Capsule Value (ie the TL;DR); Birdie Bag Value plus trivia; "Converting" OE to RP; Closing Notes.
5 - I'm aware of the fact that 3250 RP and Mythic skins are auto redeemable. I included their OE value for the general case (ie in case you already have it).
Now, without further do...
#Part 1 - Birdie Capsule
Price - 700 RP
Description - "Get three 975+ RP skin shards, 150 Orange Essence, and a chance to obtain an event-only Birdie Bag, Gemstone, or Gemstone Skin—including the new Hextech Alistar. All 975+ RP skin shards have an equal chance of dropping. Limited and Mythic skins are excluded. Gemstone and Gemstone Skin drop rate multiplied by 1.5."
|Price (RP)| || |Count| || |Chance (%)|
|3250| || |4| || |0,7984|
|1820| || |37| || |7,3852|
|1350| || |181| || |36,1277|
|975| || |279| || |55,6886|
|Loot| || |Chance (%)|
|Birdie Bag| || |5|
|Gemstones| || |5,4|
|Mythic Skins| || |0,1799|
Three 975+ RP skin shards are worth ~715 Orange Essence (OE).
The Birdie Bag is worth 1240 OE (math in Part 2). Accounting for the 5% chance, it's worth 62 OE.
A Gemstone is worth, at least, 195 RP (that's how much a Hextech+Key bundle costs). Accounting for the 5,4% chance, 10,53 RP.
A Gemstone Skin - Hextech Annie, Soulstealer Vayne, etc - is worth 490 OE. Accounting for the 0,1799% chance, 0,88 OE.
Total -> ~928 OE + 10,53 RP
This isn't useful since that OE number doesn't tell us much. For that we need to convert it back to RP (math in Part 3).
|Tag| || |Ratio| || |Value (RP)|
|Minimum| || |0,9660| || |896,448|
|Maximum| || |1,6049| || |1489,3472|
|Average| || |1,1207| || |1040|
Total -> 907 RP, 1500 RP and 1051 RP, respectively.
##Essentially, for the average case, we get 150% our money's worth, at the cost of it being random.
#Part 2 - Birdie Bag
This is one is pretty straightforward. There are a total of 63 skin lines and a grand total of 369 skins. Its worth is ~1240 OE.
Now some trivia (otherwise this part would be pretty dull).
The Top 3 **worst** skin lines are:
- Order of the Lotus valued at 345 OE
- Thunder Lord - 374 OE
- Toy Box - 390 OE
Each has 2 skins and the chance you get any one of those skin lines is 1,59%. Consider yourself unlucky if this happens.
The Top 3 **best** skin lines are:
- Pool Party - 3555 OE from 14 skins!
- PROJECT - 3522 OE from 12 skins. Beaten by 33 OE, shame.
- Snowdown Showdown - 3293 OE from 19 skins!! So many.
From all avaiable skin lines, 38 are below and 25 are above average. Essentially, we have 60,3% and 39,7% chance to land on one of those, respectively.
Cmon Rito, y u do dis? >_<
Finally, the best skin line, in terms of "internal value", is the Pulsefire (590 OE). Not unexpected since it only has 2 skins and both are really expensive.
#Part 3 - Converting OE to RP
I've calculated this before in my other discussion: [Hextech Crafing - Are Chests Worth it?](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/IqNbE0Ll-hextech-crafting-are-chests-worth-it). Shameless plug aside, this is how I did it:
- First know the minimum, maximum and average OE needed to upgrade skin shards. I'm including the intrinsic value of each shard, eg to upgrade a 520 RP skin shard you need **324 OE**
- Those skins are: 520 RP, 1820 RP and 975 RP (rounded down based on drop chances), respectively.
- Calcuate the ratio by dividing RP/OE
|Skin (RP)| || |OE to Upgrade| || |Ratio (RP/OE)|
|1820| || |1884| || |0,9660|
|975| || |870| || |1,1207|
|520| || |324| || |1,6049|
Those are, from to top bottom, the minimum, average and maximum ratios of conversion.
##Part 4 - Closing Notes
If you are wondering why I did this, my answer: for fun and knowledge. In the process I hope some of you take something useful from this.
The value of the **Birdie Capsule** is decent, so if you were considering buying it, then go ahead and do it!
My usual advice: if you have money to spend and **want to** spend it on League, then this is a good opportunity to do so. Just don't spend money you don't have!
######Health > Game.
~~I've noticed that "Dragonslayer Jarvan IV" doesn't exist. That skin is actually called "Dragon Slayer Jarvan". It should be changed just to be coherent with the other Dragonslayer skins.~~
I've also noticed "Heartseeker Vayne" isn't part of the "Heartbreakers" skin line. That's odd since it's the oldest skin from that set. Likewise, "Sweetheart Rakan" and "Sweetheart Xayah" aren't part of that skin line either. I don't know if this is intended or not, thus why I mentioned it.
Well... I've got nothing else to say other than... Go buy all those Birdies!
See you on the Rift!