Perma-ban preventable?

Title pretty much speaks for itself. I just got my account back after it got a 14-day ban for DISCUSSING (not flaming) with a premade group. I decided to mute [ALL] and [TEAM] chat and even the pings after this because I don't want to risk perma-ban since that's what's coming after a 14-day ban. But is it so that this order of banning returns back to normal the NEXT season? Lets say if I behave for 6 months, not a single discussion. And after 6 months I come on and say 1 or 2 bad things, will I get perma or 14 day again?
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