Hextech Crafting - Are Chests Worth It ?

Hextech Crafting Guide
Earn Hextech Chests through high Champion Mastery scores, or purchase them through the store. Earn keys by playing any matchmade game; keys drop more frequently when you group with friends. Unlock ...
Hello everyone. [A month ago](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/rqJj66Pv-hextech-crafting-loot-tables) I made a promise to show the **theoretical** numbers behind the hextech system. I've was lazy and only finished it now. I'll divide this in two parts. First I'll talk about the Hextech Chests and then I'll move on to the Masterwork Chests. But before that go ahead and read the loot tables on that link. Anyway, without further do, let me show you. *** *** *** #Part 1. Hextech Chests I'll laid down a few variables so we're all on the same page: - Where it says "Bad Luck Protection: You can't open three chests in a row without dropping at least one skin shard. This raises the effective drop rate of skin shards to roughly 57 percent."; the real number is 57,1429% - Where it says "onus Gemstones: Gemstones have a 3.6 percent chance of dropping as a bonus alongside normal chest content. These also have light "bad luck protection," since you can't go more than 50 boxes without getting a gemstone. This brings the overall drop rate up to 4 percent."; the real number is 4,28521% - Average Disenchant Value of Skins Shards (Avg_Skin) = 195,7129 Orange Essence (OE) - Average Disenchant Value of Champions (Avg_Champion) = 1078,519 Blue Essence (BE). Keep in mind we can only get 4800 BE or higher champion shards. - Value of Emotes (Emote) = 450 Riot Points (RP) - Average Disenchant Value of Ward Shards (Avg_Ward) = 213 OE - Value of Summoner Icons (Icon) = 250 RP - Value of Chest + Key (Chest_Key) = 195 RP - Value of Gemstone = Chest_Key = 195 RP. We can craft a Chest+Key using a gemstone. I'll use this method since you can only craft so many Hextech Skins. - Hextech Exclusive Skin Shards Disenchant Value (Hex_Skin) = 490 OE Now we have all we need to calculate each chest's value. I'll divide this in 3 parts. It will be clear why. Value of Loot in OE = Xn Value of Loot in RP = Yn Value of Loot in BE = Zn ##In a vacumm, meaning no bad luck protection. X1 = Avg_Skin\*0,5 + (Avg_Ward + 150)\*0,115 + 150\*0,035 + Gemstone\*0,036 + Chest_Key\*0,1 + Hex_Skin\*0,0004 X1 = 167,8818774 OE Y1 = Emote\*0,1 + Icon\*0,035 Y1 = 53,75 RP Z1 = Avg_Champion\*0,25 Z1 = 269,6296296 BE Note1: Gemstone and Chest_Key = X1 Note2: The "150\*0,035" refers to when you get a Summoner Icon + 150 OE. ##Accounting for bad luck protection (improved odds) X2 = Avg_Skin\*0,571429 + (Avg_Ward + 150)\*0,115 + 150\*0,035 + Gemstone\*0,0428521 + Chest_Key\*0,1 + Hex_Skin\*0,0004 X2 = 185,5337624 OE Y2 = Y1 Z2 = Z1 ##Keep the chest and the gemstone (meaning I'm counting their RP value) and including the RP value for emotes. X3 = Avg_Skin\*0,571429 + (Avg_Ward+150)\*0,115 + 150\*0,035 + Hex_Skin\*0,0004 X3 = 159,0298748 OE Y3 = Emote\*0,1 + Icon\*0,035 + Gemstone\*0,0428521 + Chest_Key\*0,1 Y3 = 81,6061595 RP Z3 = Z1 *** This is how it looks like for each case: - Case 1 -> 167,88 OE + 269,63 BE + 53,75 RP - Case 2 -> 185,53 OE + 269,63 BE + 53,75 RP - Case 3 -> 159,03 OE + 269,63 BE + 81,61 RP The first can be discarded since bad luck protection exists. I only included that case for consistency sake. Personally, I would also discard the third case since I'll always use my gemstones to open another chest. Basically, the only scenario I'm interested in is Case 2. This is all fine and dandy, but how much is that OE worth in RP ? To know this we can use the upgrade values of 3 specific skins: - 324 OE to upgrade a 520 RP skin - 1884 OE for a 1820 RP skin - 870 OE for a 975 RP skin Keep in mind that those numbers include the value of the shard itself. I chose the 975 RP skin because the average skin is worth 978 RP (based on drop rates): - minimum = 1820/1884 = 0,9660 RP/OE - maximum = 520/324 = 1,6049 RP/OE - average = 975/870 = 1,1207 RP/OE Now all it's left is using those ratios for Case 2. I'll add everything: - minimum = 232,97 RP + 269,63 BE - maximum = 351,51 RP + 269,63 BE - average = 261,67 RP + 269,63 BE We pay 195 RP (chest+key) and can get, on average, 261,67 RP in value. You may want to remove the Emote and Summoner Icons RP value. In that case the final number is 207,92 RP. Looking good. *** *** #Part 2. Masterwork Chest I'll use the same notation for this one. However: - Where it says "All the same "special rules" that govern normal Hextech Chests also apply to Masterwork Chests (minus champion-specific stuff). Because of bad luck protection the effective drop rate of skin shards is 71.94 percent."; the real number is 71,94245% Value of Loot in OE = X Value of Loot in RP = Y ##Accounting for bad luck protection (improved odds) X = Avg_Skin\*0,7194245 + 525\*0,1 + (Avg_Ward+150)\*0,1 + Hex_Skin\*0,0004 + (185,5337624)\*(0,0428521+0,1) X = 256,3041285 OE Y = Emote\*0,1 Y = 45 RP Note: The "185,5337624" number refers to the average Hextech Chest OE value I calculated in Part 1 (Case 2). I'll use the same conversion ratios: - minimum = 247,59 + 45 RP = 292,59 RP - maximum = 411,34 + 45 RP = 456,34 RP - average = 287,24 + 45 RP = 332,24 RP We pay 225 RP (masterchest + key) and we can get, on average, 332,24 RP. Once again, you may not want to include the Emote value, in which case the final number is 287,24. ######I'm not including the BE values since it's a very low number and we aren't even interested in those in the first place. *** *** #Closing Notes Both options are worth their price **IF** you are willing to pay for the randomness of the thing, even in the worst cases (minimum worth). Keep in mind that we can't actually convert OE to RP. The Masterwork chest is a better investment of your RP (150% value) when compared to Hextech Chests (134% value). This is obvious since the Hextech Chest has more "useless" stuff (champion shards and summoner icons). **My personal opinion** For what it's worth, if you have money to spend and **want** to spend it on League, then your money is well invested in either of those items. The Masterwork bundle is even better (2250 RP). Just remember you're paying for **RNG** and you may not (most likely won't) get what you want. Have a good one. - Febos
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