The event is (almost) live and so, as per usual, here I am to show you the math. This time around I've included a different discussion with trivia and other event related stuff: [Vs 2018 Event - Trivia](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/EER2NmnH-vs-2018-event-trivia).
Some definitions before I being:
1. Assume everything I show is "on average" and rounded to nearest number (4 decimal points or integer), unless I say otherwise.
2. My loot tables, and by extent the numbers I'll show, are valid up until 27th of June of 2018 (date of this event).
3. I've divided this in 6 sections: TL;DR, Skins and OE Value, Vs Bag, Lion and Wolf Orbs, Vs Tokens and Closing Notes.
4. I've excluded Gun Goddess Miss Fortune and other unique priced skins (390, 460 and 500) from the tables because I don't know their disenchant and upgrade values. I've also excluded Mythic skins since those have a different drop chance.
5. I'm aware of the fact that 3250 RP and Mythic skins are auto redeemable. I included their OE value for the general case (ie in case you already have them).
6. For the "Vs Bag" I'm assuming you can get duplicates of shards **in the same bag**.
Enough chit-chat. Let's get down to business.
#Section 0 - TL;DR
Yes, Lion and Wolf Orbs are worth your money; 100,52% for the worst case (Wolf Orb minimum) and 124,8% for the average case (Lion Orb average).
Spend to your heart, and wallet, content!
#Section 1 - Skins Table and Orange Essence (OE) Value
As the name suggest, this is the current table of skins.
##Table of Skins
|Price (RP)|Count|Chance (%)|
##Converting OE to RP
I've calculated this before in my other discussion: [Hextech Crafing - Are Chests Worth it?](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/IqNbE0Ll-hextech-crafting-are-chests-worth-it). Shameless plug aside, this is how I did it:
1. First know the minimum, maximum and average OE needed to upgrade skin shards. I'm including the intrinsic value of each shard, eg to upgrade a 520 RP skin shard you need 324 OE
2. Those skins are: 520 RP, 1820 RP and 975 RP (rounded down based on drop chances), respectively.
3. Calculate the ratio by dividing RP/OE
|Skin (RP)|OE to Upgrade|Ratio (RP/OE)|
Those are, from to top bottom, the minimum, average and maximum ratios of **conversion**.
######Red > Wololo > Blue
#Section 2 - Vs Bag
This comes first, even though you can't buy it directly, because it's necessary to calculate the value of both Orbs.
There are 14 different factions, each with varying quality and quantity of skins. Trivia about this part can be found in the [second discussion](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/EER2NmnH-vs-2018-event-trivia).
The average skin shard, when considering the averages of each faction, is worth 202,0490 OE (including every skin except for Limited).
The "Vs Bag" is worth five times that ammount: 1010,2450 OE.
#Section 3 - Lion and Wolf Orbs
They cost 250 RP and are both very similar, except for one point:
- Lion - Orange Essence (12.5% chance to receive 1.25x the disenchant value of the guaranteed skin shard)
- Wolf - Random skin shard of equal value as the guaranteed skin shard (12.5% chance)
For those that want maximum OE value, Lion is obviously better. The Wolf is better for those just looking for shards to upgrade.
Apart from that they are equal, so let me show you their values:
1. A **random skin** is worth 989,2370 RP. Let me remind you that Hextech exclusive skins are removed from that pool, even though it isn't specified in the event page. I believe this is a mistake from Riot because they've that note for previous events. Anyway, 989,2370 RP is the number I'm using and it is worth **197,8474 OE**.
2. The **"Vs Bag"**, calculated above, is 1010,2450 OE and it has 3.5% chance of happening. In other words, it's worth **35,3586 OE**.
3. The gemstone is trickier, but I've calculated that already: [Are Chests Worth It?](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/IqNbE0Ll-hextech-crafting-are-chests-worth-it).
Those numbers are outdated for two reasons: more skins since I calculated it and Riot changed what you can do with gemstones, in particular crafting Masterwork Chests instead of regular Hextech Chests.
I'll save you the talk and just give you the number. A **gemstone** is worth 261,2215 OE by itself and it has 5,4% chance of happening, so a grand total of **14,1060 OE**.
4. **Mythic skin** (490 OE) has 0,06%. Pretty straightforward: **0,294 OE**.
5. **Lion Orb** is **30,9137 OE** and **Wolf Orb** is **24,7309 OE**.
Finally, everything added together:
- Lion Orb = 278,5197 OE
- Wolf Orb = 272,3369 OE
All that's left is to convert that number back to RP. I'll use the ratios in "Section 1".
|Tag|Ratio|Lion Orb (RP)|Wolf Orb (RP)|
Remember, we pay 250 RP for this and get, in the worst case, 263 RP of **random** stuff.
#Section 4 - Vs Tokens
I was going to include this in the [second discussion](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/EER2NmnH-vs-2018-event-trivia), but it feels appropriate to stay here.
We can't buy tokens, but we can earn them from missions and by buying bundles.
We can craft them into different things, but, because I'm talking about OE and RP, I'm only interested in two of them: Orbs and key fragments.
We need 45 tokens to craft 1 Key and 80 tokens to craft 1 Orb. For the Orb we already know its value.
I'm going with Lion since it gives the most RP/OE. I'm also chosing the "average value", 305 RP. Each token, when crafting Lion Orbs, is worth 3,8125 RP.
Keys can open either Hextech Chests or Masterwork Chests, but, because I already know the answer, let's just look at Hextech Chests.
As I've said many times by now, I calculated the worth of a Hextech Chest before. That number is 210 RP (excluding emotes, summoner icons and champion shards).
Before you jump into conclusions, remember this: each key "costs" 45 tokens, not 80. In that case, each token is worth 4,667 RP.
That said, consider the following. We can buy each key for 125 RP which means the tokens, when crafting keys by themselves, are only worth 2,7778 RP.
In other words, if we have Hextech or Masterworks Chests laying around, we're better off just crafting keys to open them, if we don't intend on spending money to buy keys.
#Section 5 - Closing Notes
I tried to keep this concise and simple as possible, even though I write a lot. I do this sort of project out of my own free will, simply because I like knowledge and to share it with other people.
For what it's worth, in my opinion your money is well invested in this event and you're supporting Riot by doing so. That said, remember you're paying for **random stuff** even if the random stuff is worth more than you invested.
A throw back to a few months ago about gambling.
**This isn't gambling**. I'm beating a dead horse here, but I really dislike that label for this type of product in particular. Yes, it's true we are paying for random but we aren't gambling our money away. If we chose to pay for any of it, we are getting our money's worth, just as much as if buying any regular cosmetic item.
Events like this are actually a good way for collectors to complete their... well... collection. In the long run they're paying less.
I don't like paying for random and I'm not a collector, so I don't buy it. I'm not telling you to buy this stuff, but **if you want to buy and can buy it** then, by all means, do it!
Anyway, I hope you learned something useful from this discussion.
See y'all on the Rift!
######I said the words "worth" and "value" a total of 29 times, including those two ^_^