"There is a chance your group earns no Party Reward"

So far, me and friends have played 6 premade games, one of them with 5 people, all we ever received was 15 free IP {{item:3151}} how large exactly is the "chance" that you are talking about? how is the bonus calculated? I've won a summoner's rift game in 20:25 minutes, the base amount of IP being a lot higher than 15, shouldn't it be multiplied by at least x2?
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