The Dunning Kruger Effect in LoL and some correlations

Heyho. Since i just made a reddit post about it I thought I could also share this here. If you visit the LoL reddit sometimes you might have seen the survey by /u/corntastic in which he asked players about their rank, which rank they should be and a few more things. Over 27000 players participated and I used this data to take a look at some things I am interested in. ___ The first thing I did was to analyze how much the current rank influences the difference between current rank and perceived rank, i.e. how much people overestimate or underestimate themselves depending on their rank. According to the Dunning-Kruger-Effect people overestimate themselves more the more unskilled they are. This isn’t caused by arrogance or stupidity, but by the fact that the ability to judge a certain skill and actually being good at that skill require the same knowledge. For example if I have never heard of wave management in LoL I am unable to notice that I lack this skill, because how would I notice something if I don’t even know it exists? I would also not notice this skill in other people, which is why I would overestimate my own skill if I compared myself to others. This it what causes the Dunning-Kruger-Effect. But does the survey data confirm this theory? Do less skilled players actually overestimate themselves more? They do! http://i.imgur.com/nHzAvge.png As you can see in this graph, the more skilled players are, the smaller the average difference between current rank and perceived rank is. I excluded B5 and challenger because those were mainly used for troll answers. After finding this connection between rank and perceived rank, I asked myself what other connections might exist. I picked the datasets that were easy to translate into numerical data and correlated them with each other. These are the datasets I used: ___ Age = The players age. Since I didn’t really have another choice I assumed that everyone who said he is over 29 is 30. Rank = The current rank. P. Rank = The perceived rank. Difference = Difference between perceived rank and actual rank. Abs. Diff. = The absolute value of the difference between perceived rank and actual rank. Good KDA = The number the players considered to be a good KDA. Instead of “6 or higher” I used 6. Q type= This is the preferred Queue type. Since the answers in the survey were not numerical and therefore can not be correlated I translated the answer to the number of players. So instead of “Solo” I used 1, instead of “Duo” I used 2 and instead of “Dynamic!!!” is used 3. Not really perfect, but the best I could do with the data. Games = Amount of games played. I always used the middle of the given values, so for example I transformed “100 – 200” to 150. ___ Long story short, these are the correlations: http://i.imgur.com/S1HTW9t.png?1 There are a few interesting things to learn from these correlations. First of all: Again you can see the Dunning Kruger Effect, Rank and Difference have a 0.2 correlation. Another interesting fact is that there is no significant correlation between age and anything except the amount of games played. The weak negative correlation indicates that younger players tend to play a tiny bit more games. The least surprising correlation is probably the correlation between games played and rank: Players who play more have a higher rank (or the other way round). But you can also see that it’s “only” a 0.36 correlation. So the amount of games played is a big factor for your rank, but definitely not the only one. It’s also interesting to see that there is a weak negative correlation between rank and Q type. This means that high elo players tend to dislike playing in a group more than less skilled players. Don’t get confused by the correlation between games played and perceived rank. This correlation is caused by the fact that players who play more games tend to have a higher rank, which is why the perceived rank is higher as well. This also causes the extreme correlation between rank and perceived rank. I probably made a lot of mistakes and I am aware that I ignored significance levels, but I thought it’s still interesting enough to share :) I thought it would fit best in "Player Behavior" because the Dunning Kruger effect is often used to explain toxic behavior and also younger players and their mentality are a frequent topic here. Thanks for reading :) ___ Links Original survey: https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/4k1vqs/survey_to_better_understand_the_relationships/ Analysis by hoylake: https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/4k8zi9/analysis_of_over_27000_players_current_division/
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