Eveninn (EUW)
: Every draw obviously has a 1/10 000 chance for the winning ticket. Therefore every draw has a 9 999/10 000 chance of drawing a non-winning ticket. (We will calculate in chance of 'non-winning tickets' as it allows us to add probabilities more easily.) For independent events (like these) occurring together the rule of calculating probability is to multiply their individual probabilities. Drawing twice has a chance of 99.99% * 99.99% =99.980001% etc Fast forward we are looking for 99.99% ^ X = 50% (50% chance of drawing a non-winning ticket = 50% chance of winning ticket) And 99.99% ^ X = 1% (1% of none winning = 99% chance of winning) So either we can plug in random numbers for X till we find satisfying results, ----------- or we wanna maths it further: To solve 99.99% ^ X = 50% we'll have to transform it to: Log base 0.9999 of (0.5) = X (I don't know to use all of the fancy symbols, so bear with me. x3) Log base 0.9999 of (0.5) = 6931.125~ **So with 6932 draws you have a more than 50% chance to draw the wining ticket.** And for Log base 0.9999 of (0.01) = 46049,399~ **So with 46050 draws you have more than 99% chance to draw the winning ticket.** For control 99.99% ^ 6932 = 49.99~% (for a non-winning ticket) 99.99% ^ 46050 = 0.99~% (for a non-winning ticket) ---------- Hope that helped, sadly I'm quite bad with maths symbols for text stuffs. If clarification is needed for certain parts feel free to ask. :3 Edit: now just saw you already got it... welp, I still had fun. x3)
Thanks, that was the confirmation i needed =) same results from my friend
: I'll believe you. But that number is very very "on paper". If you actually did it and tested it, you will find that the chance will always be 1/10000 of a winning ticket. You will always have a 0.0001% chance of winning. It will never increase nor decrease. On paper, your friend may be right and that may be the closest thing to an expected value as you can get, but in practise you will find that there is no such thing as an expected value as it's completely RNG, it's always that 1/10000 chance.
Every indifidual try of course is a chance of 1 out of 10 000. Let's put it this way: You flip a coin and you want to get Tails. Every individual flip has 50% chance of giving Tails. In 2 flips you have 75% chance of getting one Tails. In three flips you have 87,5% chance of getting one Tails. In four flips you have 93,75% chance of getting one Tails. In 10 flips you have 99,99% chance of getting one Tails. The original question was with a flip chance of 1 in 10 000. And how many flips you need to achieve that 50% winning chance. And with how many flips the chance goes up to 99%.
Shamose (EUW)
: That's BS though. Chance doesn't work like that. You can pull an infinite amount of time and still not get the winning one. If that solution works then just write down one repetition. Since you either pull a winning one or you don't so the chance is 50%. This is as much bs as the solution your friend came up with.
Every indifidual try of course is a chance of 1 out of 10 000. Let's put it this way: You flip a coin and you want to get Tails. Every individual flip has 50% chance of giving Tails. In 2 flips you have 75% chance of getting one Tails. In three flips you have 87,5% chance of getting one Tails. In four flips you have 93,75% chance of getting one Tails. In 10 flips you have 99,99% chance of getting one Tails. The original question was with a flip chance of 1 in 10 000. And how many flips you need to achieve that 50% winning chance. And with how many flips the chance goes up to 99%.
: I'll believe you. But that number is very very "on paper". If you actually did it and tested it, you will find that the chance will always be 1/10000 of a winning ticket. You will always have a 0.0001% chance of winning. It will never increase nor decrease. On paper, your friend may be right and that may be the closest thing to an expected value as you can get, but in practise you will find that there is no such thing as an expected value as it's completely RNG, it's always that 1/10000 chance.
obviously. But how many one in ten thousand odds you have to stack up to get the chance up to 50%. that was the question.
Shamose (EUW)
: That's BS though. Chance doesn't work like that. You can pull an infinite amount of time and still not get the winning one. If that solution works then just write down one repetition. Since you either pull a winning one or you don't so the chance is 50%. This is as much bs as the solution your friend came up with.
So you're telling me that if me and you had a competition which one of us would draw the winning ticket first. You draw only one and i draw 5. i don't have better chance of winning? Ofc if you've drawn 10 tickets already, your eleventh has 1/10 000 again. But if i haven't drawn any tickets yet, and i start trying, trying 10 times gives more chance to win than 1. And to get that chance up to 50% was the original question. And using logarithmics the solution is 6900.
: There is no expected values. It's completely RNG. There will always be a 1/10000 chance, so I guess 5000 is 50% and 9900 is 99%. That's as close to expected values as you're gonna get, but it's completely RNG.
Never mind. My friend just broke it down for me, i'll just put it here in case you are curious what i was trying to find: She answered: "Since the propability of the win is 1/10 000 (P = 0.0001), the chance of 'no win' is 1 - P. Since they are separate tries and no draw affects the next draw, the chance for 50% to NOT draw the winning ticket is when 0.9999^x = 0.5. Solve x. You will have to draw 6932 times to get your chances of winning over 50%. To get the chance up to 99% you would need almost 50 000 draws. Naturally the chance will never be 100%, but as the amount of draws approaches infinity, the chance of winning approaches 100%.
: If you put the ticket back in the bowl, the amount of repetitions needed will be infinite, because there will always be a 1/10000 chance of picking a winning ticket. If you took the ticket out however, it would go down to 1/9999, 1/9998 ect, and will only be 50% on the last 2 tickets of 1/2 and 100% chance at 1/1.
yea no. i'm talking about expected values here.
Rioter Comments
: Tell us your Ranked 2018 stories!
Met a player in champion select who said that he just created an account just troll feed, but secretly so the system doesn't catch him. he had a loss streak of 30 games when he dinged level 30 with only 0/X stats (x>10), that particular game was his first ranked ever on that account. and he said it in lobby that he's going to continue it in rankeds. so i had to dodge, and i had fun times. ah the memories. sure i could not dodge , but then i would've had even more fun memories.
Snowbrand (EUW)
: After watching worlds and playing against le blanc, you have to admitt her revert was a mistake
Add 1 second delay before she can blink back from W and see if that's enough. At least then there's 1 second to actually do something to her
Butfaces (EUW)
: Perma ban over 1 game.
> I have received a 2-week ban before on this account. ' > I have been permanently banned over 1 game. what? How do you think permabans happen? Ofc there's always that _one game_ that triggers the final punishment. The shit piles up until it finally falls down.
Rioter Comments
Rioter Comments
SonicAF (EUW)
: When I shout "%%%%%%" and "%%%" out loud, there is no consequence. Someone might look at me like I am stupid, but it ends here. Oh, and I remeber when there were gaming clubs in our country. Everybody, EVERYBODY playing cs 1.6 was shouting insults at both teammates and opponents. Rrright through the room. There even was an actual fight once.
> [{quoted}](name=SonicAF,realm=EUW,application-id=NzaqEm3e,discussion-id=x2qthtAl,comment-id=0001,timestamp=2018-09-21T15:34:08.508+0000) > > When I shout "%%%%%%" and "%%%" out loud, there is no consequence. Someone might look at me like I am stupid, but it ends here. > > Oh, and I remeber when there were gaming clubs in our country. Everybody, EVERYBODY playing cs 1.6 was shouting insults at both teammates and opponents. Rrright through the room. There even was an actual fight once. If i own a cafe and someone starts acting like an ass, i'll permaban his ass from my service.
Rioter Comments
PleXtroN (EUNE)
: LoL on mobile?
There's a game called Mobile Legends: Boom Boom which i heard is pretty good moba considering it's a mobile game. It's a lol ripoff
: Voice chat in-game.
I'm sure the polaks who only know how to say "YOU MOTHER NOOB" would be great to have a mic discussion with
: Female team is looking for a mid laner
.#metoo , invite me, 29 year old male
: Yasuo isnt the hardest champion he is the most overloaded champion and he counters almost every mage with his stupid windwall . and everyone hates yasuo cuz he is unfair to play against and the ally yasuo;s are always the biggest noobs who watch too much montages
I hate seeing yasuo simply because i keep seeing him all the time. People are making the games so boring because they just spam the same champs over and over again, even in this meta where like everything works everywhere, noo, yasuos still play yasuo.
Leyruh (EUW)
: [ BUG/GLITCH? ] Zoe's E interaction with Azir's Turret
Yeah i think that while stuff spawn, they might act as something else for a brief time. Los spaghettos. Reminds me of when gosu got accused of scripting because enemy caitlyn's trap was working like a terrain during spawning for like 0.01 seconds which made superclicker like gosu dodge it because his champion just tried to find a route around the "terrain"
radetari (EUNE)
: i didnt flame him, yet i was chosen as a sacrifice for the ritual whenever someone flames me i end up being better but i dont see it as a way to make someone else better i just flame when someone ints or doesnt listen to my pings and end up dying because of that i ss i ping for danger and fall back nobody listens because i might just be the only guy in the team that looks at the map and acts accordingly
You can point out single games from your match histories that you could not have won even if you were faker because your team sucks. But to blame it on your teammates for being in low silver even after hundreds of games, that's on you. If you can't climb in such amount of games, then yeah you deserve whatever elo that you are stuck with.
: i got to honor 1 and 10 matchs chat ban cuz 8 premades in both teams
Premades don't hold ANY extra power in their reports. If you did nothing, the reports will not do anything. It's as simple as that.
: I JUST WANT TO MAKE THIS MESSAGE ARRIVE TO SOMEONE WHO CAN MAKE A CHANGE OR JUST MAKING PEOPLE AWARE
In the vast majority of your games it's actually you who's the problem. I mean have you actually looked at your match history unbiased? The question is: Is it possible that you're just actually in the ranks where you belong, and that's why you are not climbing? You are not climbing because you are not supposed to climb.
radetari (EUNE)
: This game is trash now and I don't wanna play Fortnite! Any suggestions?
Go play Smite , it's fun when you don't try to be too competitive. 3D moba
: I tested Riots ban system: HOW TO GET BANNED WITHOUT ANY FLAME
Ofc there can be false positives. But sending a ticket will sort it out. Just because you can trigger the system by being clever doesn't mean that the boards "unjust ban" cryers are right.
: Oceania is the most Toxic. EUW is the most Toxic. ENUE is the most Toxic. NA is the most Toxic. Literally every server is called the most toxic at some point. It's all much the same across the board. ~~Except Korea. That one is actually the most toxic. ~~ don't ban me please
nah it's not. been there on both servers enough now to call eune more toxic than euw. period.
Rioter Comments
Eambo (EUW)
: [Resolved] [EUW] Clash issues impacting other game modes
So be happy euw! you were unwillingly part of a test group and are now unable to play anything except derp modes
ChainedUp (EUW)
: This Taliyah nerf is insane! This killed her
Yep i stopped playing her too :| my favourite champ , been waiting for skin release for years but i guess i don't have to anymore since i most likely won't be playing her if they really think the aoe removal was a good thing and they won't revert that. She feels clunky as hell now.. I guess it's nice to have the extra mobility out of combat and shorter cd on w but those really don't compensate the loss of aoe from q..
: She was Cc'd for like 10 seconds, I could hit full combo with 4 turrets, and E 2 times! Cass ulti and rengo hitting the whole time.
> [{quoted}](name=MarijuHeimer,realm=EUW,application-id=39gqIYVI,discussion-id=ieEOquG8,comment-id=00020000,timestamp=2018-04-12T17:51:53.646+0000) > > She was Cc'd for like 10 seconds, I could hit full combo with 4 turrets, and E 2 times! Cass ulti and rengo hitting the whole time. This totally happened.. right
Healou (EUNE)
: In-game translations!
If you translate everything and dub every tv show you have, you'll get more russians who don't understand a word in english. It's 2018, i think it's better to force English on people on the internet
WolfChases (EUNE)
: I do, not only Yasuo but Tryndamere players as well. When there is Yasuo or Trynda in my team they are plain useless and when there are Trynda or Yasuo in the enemy team they simply roflstomp everyone and carry the game. No, this isn't a joke i qm serious. Every single time my team mate picks any of those I know we are gona lose before the game even starts. I predicteded ya and then game goes skraaaa.
: No rewards season 8?
Are you playing different game mode than where you achieved the rank? You only see the borders in that specific queue
zdravkevele (EUNE)
: Okay, I get that I shouldn't have reacted like that, but honestly, not talking about the mode, everything is lagging and bugging especially the client, and I am getting really pissed
i haven't had any problems with the client nor the games =o
zdravkevele (EUNE)
: Wow and I'm supposed to keep waiting? You should've thought of this in advance, I'm honestly sick of everything new in LoL having bugs... Please hurry up with this solution
It's preseason and the whole concept is called "beta". bugs that can't be predicted happen. they haven't had enough testing, that's why it's called beta. you are even expected to find bugs if you decide to try the mode. yes you are supposed to keep waiting, what else can you do if there is no fix available at the moment.
Rioter Comments
: Thank You Riot.
> I snapped and the flame that was in me was reignited and all hell broke lose. That one time "loose" instead of "lose" would've been correct :|
: Drop the symbols in front and after, it never looks good. Regardless what meaning they have XD
that's some programmer shit, an SQL injection. he's feeding a command that ignores a table called "users" if i'm correct, so it makes the full name available. That's how poor databases get shit on, but i don't really think it works on rito's database.
: Why do we fall?
So i don't have to fking make you fall
Sicarrio (EUW)
: Is Ahri inspired by Naruto?
What made you think that Naruto came up with the concept?
Eambo (EUW)
: Hi Master Scar, If you wish to engage in potty mouth behaviour, you can type "/chatfilter" ingame to toggle it on/off :-)
thanks, it actually bothered me when i couldn't type the F word in chat :F
Wùkong (EUW)
: ARURF - A good idea with poor execution.
can you still play every champ in ARURF? do you have the whole champ pool there like you used to have in normal urf? because if not: i don't know what your sample is, but considering there's literally urf and aram accounts out there, and accounts that "only have op champs" , and majority of people don't own shit champs, there **will never** be as many urgots and mundos compared to yasuos and zeds. For example when there's 100 players playing with similiar champions bought, those champions will stand out. The percentages will only even out when there's 100 players playing who have **all** the champs bought
JupJup01 (EUW)
: -3 Lp
Most likely you dodged, got -3 and ended up from 0 to -3, then you lost, and you had good enough mmr to not get demoted so after loss you still had that -3.
24thDiK (EUW)
: Honestly, there is a need to define what an actual league of legend player is.
My point still stands. There's need to define what an actual football player is too. Just like a casual league player, like a casual football player, a casual leaguer logs in once or twice a week to play a game or two, a casual football player goes out and plays a game or two or trickdonediddly for some time and goes home. So why do we compare a worldclass players of football to a casual league player, football players who spend literally their whole life practicing football, ten hours a day. why is that comparable to a league player who spends an hour a day to play lol casually. Then we have world class lol players who spend literally 12 hours a day to practice lol each day of the week, why would we compare these professionals to a casual footballer who goes out play with their friends once or twice a week for an hour. Can you see my point now? (sorry for drunk post)
HDinis09 (EUW)
: Anyone can play league, however not anyone can play on a worldwide known club :D But yes, they do earn more money that a lot of respectfull jobs.True that.
Why are you comparing a casual lol player to worldwide known football club .... ? The same way you could argue that anyone can play football, but to be part of a world class lcs team ..? only a tiny fraction of lol players ever get so far.
kiro1315 (EUNE)
: I actually enjoy sports! Not esports-just clicking and pressing buttons.
> [{quoted}](name=kiro1315,realm=EUNE,application-id=N9uP9Byj,discussion-id=ERwKfz6y,comment-id=00000000,timestamp=2017-03-04T18:41:56.265+0000) > > I actually enjoy sports! Not esports-just clicking and pressing buttons. and football is just running around field kicking a ball. and they earn millions for that? come on.
Rstonius (EUW)
: Ok, I'm so goddamn sorry!
At the beginning of the game my adc runs top side enemy jungle alone to counterjungle for some odd reason, he notices i'm not there, he proceeds anyways, dies 1v2 , blames me for not being there for the rest of the game. Like, why'd he go there to begin with. And when he clearly saw i'm not there and i have no intention of moving all the way from bot lane to enemy top jungle for no %%%%ing reason, he decides to go in anyways. Even though he had well over 30 seconds to leave. My fault. Totally my fault he died over there. And missed 3 waves.
: Why the **** am i banned?
Since you are quitting anyways, could you reveal - for once - which program you were using to get banned? Just be honest and let us boarders know what the "I've never used hacks" -hack actually was, pretty please?
Not xPeke (EUW)
: How indicative is Total Damage Dealt to Champions in regards to how well you played?
Teemo top topping damage dealt to champs, meanwhile he was just punching some garen's unlimited health bar over and over again. And that's all he does the whole game. Then he dares to argue that he was useful because of the damage dealt. Nope.
Arzonv (EUW)
: %%%%ING ARURF
What's the problem? If you don't like it, just play some other mode like you did before the weekend and like you will after it's gone .. ? > They KNOW no one likes arurf and they still release it. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't release arurf if that was actually the case. Or is the problem that you want normal urf or what? Because that shit was even more broken and the very definition of anti-fun.
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Level 84 (EUNE)
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